ELECTION LAB - 2026 Midterms

By @johnbikis

An independent 2026 midterm forecast for the House, Senate and governors. It blends graded polls, prediction markets, fundamentals and expert ratings, updated every morning through Nov 3.

Independent, nonpartisan

Last updated: Fri Oct 23, 2026, 7:30 AM ET

Next update: Sat Oct 24, 2026, about 7am ET (updates daily through Nov 3)

House

231 D

D control 92%

range 219 to 242

Senate

51 D

D control 60.1%

range 48 to 54

Governors

27 D

range 23 to 30

Early ballots

20.9M

UF Election Lab, Oct 22 [65]

How the forecast has moved

2 daily editions so far, Oct 22 to Oct 23. My estimates, not certainties.

House, D seats
231 D
no change vs Oct 22
Senate, chance of D control
60.1%
+0.1 pts vs Oct 22
Governors, D seats
27 D
no change vs Oct 22

Trend lines start once 5 daily editions are in (Oct 26).

Forecast map: who's favored in each race

Darker = safer. Tap a state for polls, markets and ratings.

AKMEWIVTNHWAIDMTNDMNILMINYMAORNVWYSDIAINOHPANJCTRICAUTCONEMOKYWVVAMDDEAZNMKSARTNNCSCDCOKLAMSALGAHITXFL

Ohio

Lean D

Sherrod Brown (D) vs Jon Husted (R)

D/I +1.2

Seat held by
R
Cook
Toss-up
Sabato
Toss-up
Inside Elections
Toss-up
Poll average (graded)
D/I +3.5 (19 graded polls)
Fundamentals (my estimate)
R +3.3
Latest poll
VoteHub/Verasight, Oct 1 to 20, 531 LV: D side 47.5, R 43.6
Ad spending
$467M (38.0% pro-Dem; general election to Oct 20)

Markets: Kalshi 70.0% / Polymarket 70.0% (Sherrod Brown)

Prediction markets are bets, not forecasts. Snapshot Oct 23, 7:02 AM ET.

Money (FEC filings)

Sherrod Brown (D)

Jul 1 to Sep 30 raised
$23.1M
Oct 1 to 14 raised
$6.7M
Cash on hand Oct 14
$4.5M

Jon Husted (R)

Jul 1 to Sep 30 raised
$4.8M
Oct 1 to 14 raised
$0.7M
Cash on hand Oct 14
$4.2M

Source: FEC filings. Candidate committees only; outside groups not included.

Fox Oct 15 to 19 (1,592 LV): Brown 52, Husted 47. Cook Political Report poll Oct 9 to 13: Brown 49, Husted 43.

Sources: 26, 28, 31, 34, 37, 54, 82

Ohio deep dive

Everything I have on Ohio: my composite and its parts, every graded poll, early voting by county, money and the competitive House seats.

Senate

Sherrod Brown (D) vs Jon Husted (R)

Lean DD/I +1.2

Graded poll average (35%)
D/I +3.5, 19 polls
Fundamentals, my estimate (25%)
R +3.3
Markets (20%)
Kalshi 70%, Polymarket 70%
Expert ratings, shifted (20%)
D/I +0.9
Cook / Sabato / Inside
Toss-up / Toss-up / Toss-up

Sources: 26, 28, 31, 34, 37, 54, 82

Governor

Amy Acton (D) vs Vivek Ramaswamy (R)

Lean DD +2.6

Graded poll average (35%)
D +3.7, 13 polls
Fundamentals, my estimate (25%)
R +0.3
Markets (20%)
Kalshi 81%, Polymarket 82%
Expert ratings, shifted (20%)
D +1.6
Cook / Sabato / Inside
Toss-up / Lean D / Toss-up

Sources: 26, 28, 32, 34, 37, 55, 82

Competitive Ohio House races

OH-01 held by D

Greg Landsman (D) vs Eric Conroy (R)

Ratings: Decision Desk HQ Likely D (September 25, 2026); The Cook Political Report Likely D (October 16, 2026); Inside Elections Tilt D (June 12, 2026); Sabato's Crystal Ball Likely D (October 20, 2026). Source

Markets: Kalshi 95.2% / Polymarket 95.1% (D side)

Greg Landsman (D)

Q3 raised
$0.9M
Oct 1 to 14 raised
$0.1M
Cash Oct 14
$0.5M

Eric Conroy (R)

Q3 raised
$0.7M
Oct 1 to 14 raised
$0.2M
Cash Oct 14
$0.3M

District polls are mostly campaign or party sponsored. Shown for reference, not averaged. FEC e-filings via OpenFEC (raw filings, not FEC-processed): Q3 (Jul 1 to Sep 30) and pre-general (Oct 1 to 14).

OH-07 held by R

Brian Poindexter (D) vs Max Miller (R)

Ratings: The Cook Political Report Toss-up (August 10, 2026); Decision Desk HQ Toss-up (July 14, 2026); Inside Elections Toss-up (August 10, 2026); Sabato's Crystal Ball Toss-up (August 8, 2026). Source

Markets: Kalshi n/a / Polymarket 89.5% (D side)

Brian Poindexter (D)

Q3 raised
$2.5M
Oct 1 to 14 raised
$0.6M
Cash Oct 14
$0.8M

Max Miller (R)

Q3 raised
$1.1M
Oct 1 to 14 raised
$0.0M
Cash Oct 14
$0.1M

District polls are mostly campaign or party sponsored. Shown for reference, not averaged. FEC e-filings via OpenFEC (raw filings, not FEC-processed): Q3 (Jul 1 to Sep 30) and pre-general (Oct 1 to 14).

OH-09 held by D

Marcy Kaptur (D) vs Derek Merrin (R)

Ratings: Decision Desk HQ Lean D (July 14, 2026); The Cook Political Report Toss-up (January 15, 2026); Inside Elections Toss-up (October 15, 2026); Sabato's Crystal Ball Toss-up (May 6, 2026). Source

Markets: Kalshi 78.0% / Polymarket 78.0% (D side)

Marcy Kaptur (D)

Q3 raised
$1.3M
Oct 1 to 14 raised
$0.3M
Cash Oct 14
$0.7M

Derek Merrin (R)

Q3 raised
$0.6M
Oct 1 to 14 raised
$0.1M
Cash Oct 14
$0.4M

District polls are mostly campaign or party sponsored. Shown for reference, not averaged. FEC e-filings via OpenFEC (raw filings, not FEC-processed): Q3 (Jul 1 to Sep 30) and pre-general (Oct 1 to 14).

OH-10 held by R

Kristina Knickerbocker (D) vs Mike Turner (R)

Ratings: Decision Desk HQ Likely R (July 14, 2026); The Cook Political Report Lean R (October 16, 2026); Inside Elections Solid R (October 31, 2025); Sabato's Crystal Ball Likely R (September 16, 2026). Source

Markets: Kalshi n/a / Polymarket 33.5% (D side)

Kristina Knickerbocker (D)

Q3 raised
$0.5M
Oct 1 to 14 raised
$0.1M
Cash Oct 14
$0.1M

Mike Turner (R)

Q3 raised
$0.3M
Oct 1 to 14 raised
$0.1M
Cash Oct 14
$0.3M

District polls are mostly campaign or party sponsored. Shown for reference, not averaged. FEC e-filings via OpenFEC (raw filings, not FEC-processed): Q3 (Jul 1 to Sep 30) and pre-general (Oct 1 to 14).

OH-13 held by D

Emilia Sykes (D) vs Carey Coleman (R)

Ratings: Decision Desk HQ Likely D (July 14, 2026); The Cook Political Report Likely D (April 7, 2026); Inside Elections Solid D (March 12, 2026); Sabato's Crystal Ball Likely D (March 26, 2026). Source

Markets: Kalshi 96.3% / Polymarket 95.8% (D side)

Emilia Sykes (D)

Q3 raised
$0.7M
Oct 1 to 14 raised
$0.1M
Cash Oct 14
$0.9M

Carey Coleman (R)

Q3 raised
$0.0M
Oct 1 to 14 raised
$0.0M
Cash Oct 14
$0.1M

District polls are mostly campaign or party sponsored. Shown for reference, not averaged. FEC e-filings via OpenFEC (raw filings, not FEC-processed): Q3 (Jul 1 to Sep 30) and pre-general (Oct 1 to 14).

OH-15 held by R

Don Leonard (D) vs Mike Carey (R)

Ratings: Decision Desk HQ Likely R (July 14, 2026); The Cook Political Report Lean R (October 16, 2026); Inside Elections Likely R (October 1, 2026); Sabato's Crystal Ball Likely R (September 29, 2026); The Economist Lean R (April 24, 2026). Source

Markets: Kalshi n/a / Polymarket 36.5% (D side)

Don Leonard (D)

Q3 raised
$0.5M
Oct 1 to 14 raised
$0.2M
Cash Oct 14
$0.1M

Mike Carey (R)

Q3 raised
$0.7M
Oct 1 to 14 raised
$0.2M
Cash Oct 14
$0.4M

District polls are mostly campaign or party sponsored. Shown for reference, not averaged. FEC e-filings via OpenFEC (raw filings, not FEC-processed): Q3 (Jul 1 to Sep 30) and pre-general (Oct 1 to 14).

Every Ohio poll this cycle

DatesSampleIn my model
OH-SENVerasight/VoteHubNot in Silver Bulletin ratings tableOct 1 to Oct 20531 LVD +4.0Yes
OH-GOVVerasight/VoteHubNot in Silver Bulletin ratings tableOct 1 to Oct 20531 LVD +4.0Yes
OH-SENBeacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R)Silver Bulletin A-Oct 15 to Oct 192,005 RVD +7.0Yes
OH-GOVBeacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R)Silver Bulletin A-Oct 15 to Oct 192,005 RVD +4.0Yes
OH-GOVActiVoteNon-scientific opt-in app poll (unrated by Silver Bulletin)Sep 27 to Oct 19400 LVD +-2.0No
OH-SENMarist UniversitySilver Bulletin A-Oct 15 to Oct 18Not reported LVD +4.0Yes
OH-SENActiVotenot in model dataSep 26 to Oct 18400 LVD +0.0No
OH-GOVMarist UniversitySilver Bulletin A-Oct 15 to Oct 18Not reported LVD +8.0Yes
OH-SENRasmussen Reports (R)Silver Bulletin B+Oct 12 to Oct 14901 LVD +-2.0Yes
OH-SENGS Strategy Group (R)/New River Strategies (D)Silver Bulletin B/COct 9 to Oct 13959 LVD +6.0Yes
OH-GOVGS Strategy Group (R)/New River Strategies (D)Silver Bulletin B/COct 9 to Oct 13959 LVD +5.0Yes
OH-SENBowling Green State University/YouGovSilver Bulletin BSep 29 to Oct 91,000 LVD +6.0Yes
OH-GOVBowling Green State University/YouGovSilver Bulletin BSep 29 to Oct 91,000 LVD +6.0Yes
OH-SENco/efficient (R)Silver Bulletin BOct 5 to Oct 6925 LVD +-1.0Yes
OH-GOVco/efficient (R)Silver Bulletin BOct 5 to Oct 6925 LVD +-2.0Yes

Every Ohio Senate and governor general election poll this cycle listed on the Wikipedia race pages (with the cited source link). "inMyModel" says whether my average uses it; polls before Aug 1, 2026 are outside my model window.

Kalshi, last 45 days

Ohio Senate (Democratic side)

Sep 8Oct 2269c51c

45 days, daily close. Now 69 cents.

Ohio governor (Democratic side)

Sep 8Oct 2278c54c

45 days, daily close. Now 78 cents.

Prices are cents per $1 contract (market-implied chance), not my forecast. Kalshi history: daily candles for the Democratic-side contract, date is the UTC candle end.

Source: Kalshi, fetched 2026-10-22 23:53 ET.

Stark County note: the state file shows 14,397 in-person early votes in Stark, already past Stark's 2022 final early in-person total of 13,821 (Stark board of elections via WHBC [50]). That 2022 figure covers the whole early voting period, not the same point in time.

Every graded Senate poll

Graded poll average Brown +3.5 (19 polls) [82]. Margin is Brown minus Husted; adjusted subtracts the pollster's house effect (Silver Bulletin) [83]. Grey rows are not in my average.

Pollster (grade)FieldSampleBrown (D)Husted (R)MarginAdjustedIn my average
VoteHub/Verasight (unrated)Oct 1 to Oct 20531 LV47.543.6D +3.9D +3.9Yes
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research (A-)Oct 15 to Oct 191,592 LV5247D +5.0D +3.7Yes
Marist University (A-)Oct 15 to Oct 181,176 LV4844D +4.0D +3.5Yes
Rasmussen Reports (B+, R sponsor)Oct 12 to Oct 14901 LV4749R +2.0R +0.7Yes
New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group (B/C)Oct 9 to Oct 13959 LV4943D +6.0D +6.3Yes
Bowling Green State University/YouGov (B)Sep 29 to Oct 91,000 LV4842D +6.0D +4.9Yes
co/efficient (B, R sponsor)Oct 5 to Oct 6925 LV4546R +1.0D +1.7Yes
CNN/SSRS (C+)Sep 29 to Oct 5760 LV4943D +6.0D +3.2Yes
The New York Times/Siena College (A)Sep 22 to Oct 1616 LV4946D +3.0D +1.6Yes
YouGov (B)Sep 18 to Sep 303,780 LV4945D +4.0D +2.9Yes
InsiderAdvantage (B+)Sep 28 to Sep 291,200 LV4443D +1.0D +0.7Yes
Marist University (A-)Sep 24 to Sep 271,298 RV5143D +8.0D +7.5Yes
Big Data Poll (F)Sep 26 to Sep 27680 LV46.342.6D +3.7D +4.0No (F grade)
Suffolk University (A-)Sep 23 to Sep 27500 LV46.644D +2.6D +1.9Yes
Quantus Insights (B/C)Sep 21 to Sep 23695 LV47.847.3D +0.5D +1.9Yes
Rasmussen Reports (B+, R sponsor)Sep 22 to Sep 231,115 LV4643D +3.0D +4.3Yes
Trafalgar Group (B, R sponsor)Sep 14 to Sep 161,085 LV4542D +3.0D +4.9Yes
YouGov (B)Sep 1 to Sep 101,000 LV4845D +3.0D +1.9Yes
InsiderAdvantage (B+)Sep 8 to Sep 91,200 LV47.341.9D +5.4D +5.1Yes
Wedgewood Polls (banned)Aug 11 to Aug 13800 LV4844D +4.0D +4.0No (banned pollster)
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research (A-)Aug 6 to Aug 101,008 RV5345D +8.0D +6.7Yes

Every graded governor poll

Graded poll average Acton +3.7 (13 polls) [82]. An ActiVote poll (Oct 19, Ramaswamy +2.8) is left out: it is an opt-in app poll, which I no longer count.

Pollster (grade)FieldSampleActon (D)Ramaswamy (R)MarginAdjustedIn my average
VoteHub/Verasight (unrated)Oct 1 to Oct 20531 LV46.245.4D +0.8D +0.8Yes
ActiVote (banned)Sep 27 to Oct 19400 LV48.651.4R +2.8R +2.8No (banned pollster)
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research (A-)Oct 15 to Oct 191,592 LV5048D +2.0D +0.7Yes
Marist University (A-)Oct 15 to Oct 181,176 LV5043D +7.0D +6.5Yes
New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group (B/C)Oct 9 to Oct 13959 LV4944D +5.0D +5.3Yes
Bowling Green State University/YouGov (B)Sep 29 to Oct 91,000 LV5044D +6.0D +4.9Yes
co/efficient (B, R sponsor)Oct 5 to Oct 6925 LV4345R +2.0D +0.7Yes
CNN/SSRS (C+)Sep 29 to Oct 5760 LV5042D +8.0D +5.2Yes
The New York Times/Siena University (A)Sep 22 to Oct 1616 LV4945D +4.0D +2.6Yes
YouGov (B)Sep 18 to Sep 303,780 LV4844D +4.0D +2.9Yes
Marist University (A-)Sep 24 to Sep 271,298 RV5044D +6.0D +5.5Yes
Suffolk University (A-)Sep 23 to Sep 27500 LV5041D +9.0D +8.3Yes
Big Data Poll (F)Sep 26 to Sep 27680 LV46.847.9R +1.1R +0.8No (F grade)
YouGov (B)Sep 1 to Sep 101,000 LV4845D +3.0D +1.9Yes
Wedgewood Polls (banned)Aug 11 to Aug 13800 LV4746D +1.0D +1.0No (banned pollster)
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research (A-)Aug 6 to Aug 101,008 RV4850R +2.0R +3.3Yes

Ohio House districts I track

  • OH-07 held by RTilt DD +0.9

    Cook: Toss-up. Inside Elections: not rated. No public district poll.

  • OH-09 held by DTilt DD +0.9

    Cook: Toss-up. Inside Elections: Toss-up. No public district poll.

  • OH-10 held by RLean RR +3.1

    Cook: Lean R. Inside Elections: not rated. No public district poll.

  • OH-15 held by RLean RR +3.1

    Cook: Lean R. Inside Elections: not rated. No public district poll.

Sources: 33, 37, 82

Senate fundraising (FEC filings)

CandidateRaised Jul to SepRaised Oct 1 to 14Cash Oct 14Raised this cycleFilings
Sherrod Brown (D)$23.1M$6.7M$4.5M$68.4MQ3 · Pre-general
Jon Husted (R)$4.8M$686K$4.2M$19.9MQ3 · Pre-general

Candidate committee reports filed with the FEC (pre-general report filed Oct 22), read through OpenFEC electronic filings, not yet FEC-processed. Outside groups are in ad spending below.

Ad spending

  • Senate: Ad spending, both sides: $467M (38.0% pro-Dem; general election to Oct 20) [54]
  • Governor: Ad spending, both sides: $27.03M (31.3% pro-Dem; Sep 28 to Oct 11) [55]

Jeff Yass and Ohio

FEC filings for the super PAC V-PAC: Victors, Not Victims confirm $30 million from Jeff Yass for Vivek Ramaswamy's Ohio run: $10M (Mar 6, 2025), $5M (Jan 12, 2026), $5M (Mar 27, 2026) and $10M (Aug 10, 2026, e-filed) [1]. POLITICO puts his total this cycle above $105 million [71].

Safe DLikely DLean DTilt DToss-upTilt RLean RLikely RSafe RNo race

Point ranges (my composite margin): Safe over 15, Likely 5 to 15, Lean 1 to 5, Tilt under 1, Toss-up under 0.3.

Key terms: composite, D/I, Tilt vs Lean, house effect, LV
Composite
My blended forecast margin: polls 35%, fundamentals 25%, prediction markets 20%, expert ratings 20%.
D/I
Democrat or independent running against the Republican (Senate). Governor margins show D.
Safe, Likely, Lean, Tilt, Toss-up
How far ahead the favorite is in my composite. Tilt is under 1 point, Lean is 1 to 5.
Graded polls
Polls weighted by the pollster's Silver Bulletin grade, how recent they are and sample size.
House effect
A pollster's usual lean. I subtract it from each of its polls.
Fundamentals
How the state voted for president in 2024 and 2020, plus the national mood and an incumbent edge.
LV / RV
Likely voters / registered voters. I use likely-voter numbers when a poll reports both.
Simulations
I run 20,000 simulated elections to get the seat ranges and control odds.
No market
No prediction market is trading on that race.

Polls are my graded average of VoteHub's poll feed since Aug 1 plus polls I checked at the pollster's own release, adjusted for each pollster's house effect [82,83]; markets are the non-Republican side's chance in percent. Independents Dan Osborn (NE), Seth Bodnar (MT), Brian Bengs (SD) and the Idaho independent are counted on the non-Republican side of the margin but not as Democratic seats.

Down-ballot to watch: Kansas Attorney General

Kalshi has Democrat Chris Mann at 56% against Republican incumbent Kris Kobach at 45% (Oct 22 market prices, so the two sides need not sum to 100) [72]. Kobach won the 2022 race 50.8 to 49.2. One public poll: Free State Research, Oct 5 to 10, Mann 47, Kobach 46.

Races within 10 points

Rating
AlaskaToss-upR +0.1
IowaTilt RR +0.7
TexasTilt DD/I +0.8
OhioLean DD/I +1.2
KansasLean RR +1.8
MaineLean DD/I +2.5
MichiganLean DD/I +4.3
South CarolinaLean RR +4.9
NebraskaLikely RR +6.2
MinnesotaLikely DD/I +7.2
FloridaLikely RR +8.1
New HampshireLikely DD/I +8.4
North CarolinaLikely DD/I +8.9
GeorgiaLikely DD/I +9.2
MississippiLikely RR +9.7

How this forecast works

My estimate, not a certainty. Each race blends four things: polls 35%, fundamentals 25%, prediction markets 20% and expert ratings 20%. Polls come from VoteHub's open poll feed plus polls I check at the pollster's own release. Better pollsters, newer polls and bigger samples count more, and fake or failing pollsters are dropped. Skew check: I subtract each pollster's usual lean (its Silver Bulletin house effect) from its result, count campaign and party polls at half weight, use likely-voter numbers when a poll also reports registered voters, and never let one poll carry more than half of a race's poll weight. Fundamentals start from how the state voted for president in 2024 and 2020, then add the national mood, which I put at D +9.6, plus an edge for incumbents. Expert ratings from Cook, Sabato and Inside Elections now count less, because raters assume a neutral year. I then run 20,000 simulated elections to get the seat ranges. These weights are my own choice.

Full method

House

231 D

Range 219 to 242

Markets:
D 92 to 93% (Kalshi / Polymarket) [26,28]
Other models:
D 78% (DDHQ) [102]
Experts:
D +10 to 20 (Inside Elections gain) [37]

Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats. Every source I track points the same way.

Senate

51 D

Range 48 to 54

Markets:
D 68% (Kalshi / Polymarket) [26,28]
Other models:
D 57 to 75% (DDHQ, Silver Bulletin) [102,103]
Experts:
D +3 to 5 (Inside Elections gain) [38]

Democrats need a net gain of 4. Four seats (AK, IA, TX, OH) sit within 1.5 points in my composite.

Governors

27 D

Range 23 to 30

Markets:
n/a (no national market read)
Experts:
4 Toss-ups at Cook: GA, NV, OH, WI [32]

Nevada, Georgia and Vermont are the closest governor races on my board.

Senate control probability

60.1% D

my simulation

Share of 20,000 simulations with 51 or more non-Republican seats. An estimate, not a certainty.

Closest races

RaceMarginRatingMarkets D side
Alaska SenateR +0.1Toss-upPoly 74% / Kalshi 75%
Georgia governorD +0.5Tilt DPoly 62% / Kalshi 61%
Nevada governorR +0.5Tilt RPoly 66% / Kalshi 66%
Iowa SenateR +0.7Tilt RPoly 42% / Kalshi 42%
Texas SenateD +0.8Tilt DPoly 66% / Kalshi 66%
Ohio SenateD +1.2Lean DPoly 70% / Kalshi 70%
Vermont governorR +1.4Lean RPoly 26% / Kalshi: no market

Markets vs polls

In 4 races my graded poll average and the prediction markets point to different favorites. Polls: VoteHub's feed plus polls I checked at release, graded, adjusted for house effects and weighted by me [82,83]; markets: Polymarket and Kalshi, Oct 22 [28,26]. Neither is a sure guide; that is why the composite blends them with fundamentals and expert ratings.

RaceGraded polls sayMarkets sayMy composite
Iowa SenateD +0.1 (18 graded polls)Republican favored (D side 42%)Tilt R (R +0.7)
Kansas SenateD +0.8 (10 graded polls)Republican favored (D side 38.5%)Lean R (R +1.8)
Georgia governorR +1.7 (8 graded polls)Non-Republican side favored (D side 61.5%)Tilt D (D +0.5)
Nevada governorR +1.1 (3 graded polls)Non-Republican side favored (D side 66%)Tilt R (R +0.5)

Rating changes since the last edition

Changes since the previous edition (earlier rating to current rating).

RacePrevious editionNow (estimate)
South Carolina SenateLikely R (R +5.6)Lean R (R +4.9)
South Dakota governorLikely R (R +15.0)Safe R (R +16.3)

On the numbers available Oct 22, Democrats are clear House favorites (91.9% in my district simulation) and modest Senate favorites (60.1% of 20,000 simulations). The Senate hinges on Alaska, Iowa, Texas and Ohio, all within 1.5 points in my composite, so a normal polling miss could flip control. These are my estimates, not certainties.

House

Election Lab (my blend)231 D (range 219 to 242)
My district simulation (60% of my number)230 D
Polymarket headline236 D
Kalshi most likely range234 to 237 D
Inside Elections midpoint229 D (gain of 10 to 20)
Sabato leans plus half of Toss-ups229 D
Cook leans plus half of Toss-upsabout 225 D
200210220230240250

Democratic House seats. Dashed line: 218 = majority. Thin line: stated range. Scale starts at 200.

My House number, 231 D (range 219 to 242), blends my simulation of the 49 competitive districts (60%), the markets' seat estimate (20%, about 236) and the raters' seat estimates (20%, about 227.5). Democrats reach 218 in 91.9% of my district simulations. Cook rates 214 seats at least Lean D, 21 Toss-up, 200 at least Lean R (Oct 16). Sabato: 223, 12, 200 (Oct 22).

DistrictHeldCookInside ElectionsMy composite (estimate)
AR-02RLikely RLikely RLikely R
AZ-01RLean DTilt DLean D
AZ-02RLikely Rnot ratedLean R
AZ-06RToss-upnot ratedTilt D
CA-13DLean Dnot ratedLean D
CA-22RToss-upnot ratedTilt D
CA-48RLean Dnot ratedLean D
CO-05RLean Rnot ratedLean R
CO-08RToss-upnot ratedTilt D
FL-13RLean Rnot ratedLean R
FL-14DToss-upnot ratedLean D
FL-22DToss-upnot ratedTilt D
FL-25DLean Dnot ratedLean D
FL-27RLean Rnot ratedLean R
IA-01RLean Dnot ratedLean D
IA-02RToss-upToss-upLean D
IA-03RLean Dnot ratedLean D
KY-06RLean RTilt RTilt R
ME-02DLean RLean RLean R
MI-04RToss-upnot ratedTilt D
MI-07RToss-upnot ratedLean D
MI-10RToss-upnot ratedTilt D
MN-01RLean Rnot ratedLean R
MO-02RLikely Rnot ratedLean R
MT-01RToss-upTilt RLean D
NC-01DToss-upToss-upTilt D
NC-11RToss-upToss-upLikely D
NJ-07RLean Dnot ratedLean D
NM-02DLean Dnot ratedLean D
NY-17RToss-upnot ratedLean D
NY-21RLean RLean RLean R
OH-07RToss-upnot ratedTilt D
OH-09DToss-upToss-upTilt D
OH-10RLean Rnot ratedLean R
OH-15RLean Rnot ratedLean R
PA-01RLean Rnot ratedLean R
PA-07RLean DTilt DLean D
PA-08RToss-upTilt DLean D
PA-10RLean Dnot ratedLean D
SC-01RLean RLean RLean R
TX-15RToss-upToss-upTilt D
TX-28DLean Dnot ratedLean D
TX-34DToss-upnot ratedTilt D
TX-35DLean Rnot ratedTilt R
VA-01RToss-upnot ratedTilt D
VA-02RToss-upnot ratedTilt D
WA-03DLean Dnot ratedLean D
WI-01RLean Rnot ratedLean R
WI-03RToss-upnot ratedTilt D

House battleground: district data

The 49 competitive districts I track, with each seat's 2024 presidential result on the lines used this November, whether the incumbent is on the ballot, and each nominee's campaign money. Starting with the Oct 24 update, these district fundamentals feed my House number.

District2024 president (2026 lines)SeatDemocrat: receipts / cash on handRepublican: receipts / cash on hand
CA-48D +3.4Harris 50.4%, Trump 47%Open seatMarni von Wilpert$4.5M / $1.0M cash through Sep 30Jim Desmond$3.2M / $0.7M cash through Oct 14
NY-17D +0.6Harris 49.9%, Trump 49.3%Incumbent running (R)Cait Conley$9.7M / $1.1M cash through Sep 30Mike Lawler$10.3M / $2.0M cash through Oct 14
CA-13D +0.4Harris 48.8%, Trump 48.4%Incumbent running (D)Adam Gray$5.1M / $1.2M cash through Sep 30Kevin Lincoln$3.0M / $0.4M cash through Oct 14
PA-01D +0.3Harris 49.7%, Trump 49.4%Incumbent running (R)Bob Harvie$3.2M / $0.4M cash through Oct 14Brian Fitzpatrick$8.0M / $0.7M cash through Oct 14
VA-02R +0.2Harris 49.3%, Trump 49.5%Incumbent running (R)Elaine Luria$8.0M / $0.5M cash through Oct 14Jen Kiggans$7.6M / $1.3M cash through Oct 14
AZ-06R +0.8Harris 49.1%, Trump 49.8%Incumbent running (R)JoAnna Mendoza$10.8M / $1.5M cash through Sep 30Juan Ciscomani$7.6M / $0.6M cash through Oct 14
NJ-07R +1.2Harris 48.5%, Trump 49.6%Incumbent running (R)Rebecca Bennett$8.8M / $1.1M cash through Oct 14Thomas Kean Jr.$5.9M / $2.3M cash through Sep 30
MI-07R +1.3Harris 48.6%, Trump 49.9%Incumbent running (R)William Lawrence$3.7M / $1.0M cash through Sep 30Tom Barrett$8.2M / $1.0M cash through Oct 14
NM-02R +1.8Harris 48.1%, Trump 49.9%Incumbent running (D)Gabe Vasquez$5.3M / $0.6M cash through Sep 30Greg Cunningham$2.5M / $0.3M cash through Oct 14
CO-08R +1.8Harris 47.8%, Trump 49.6%Incumbent running (R)Manny Rutinel$8.6M / $1.8M cash through Sep 30Gabe Evans$7.2M / $1.3M cash through Oct 14
CA-22R +1.9Harris 47.7%, Trump 49.6%Incumbent running (R)Randy Villegas$5.5M / $0.7M cash through Sep 30David Valadao$6.1M / $2.4M cash through Sep 30
AZ-01R +3.1Harris 48%, Trump 51.1%Open seatAmish Shah$5.0M / $0.5M cash through Sep 30Jay Feely$3.4M / $0.5M cash through Sep 30
  • 2024 president: Harris minus Trump share of all votes cast, recalculated for the district lines used in 2026, including the 10 states with new maps.
  • Money: each nominee's principal campaign committee, cycle to date, through the date shown (Sep 30 quarterly report or Oct 14 pre-general report). Outside groups and party spending are not included.
  • Seat: whether the current member is on the November ballot in this district.

Sources: The Downballot, 2024 presidential results by congressional district (2026 lines) (read Oct 23, 2026); FEC, all-candidates summary file (2025 to 2026) (read Oct 23, 2026); Wikipedia, 2026 U.S. House elections (nominees and incumbent status, citing state election offices) (read Oct 23, 2026)

Election night

Polls close (Eastern)States
6:00 PMIndiana (Eastern), Kentucky (Eastern)
7:00 PMFlorida (Eastern), Georgia, Indiana (Central), Kentucky (Central), South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia
7:30 PMNorth Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia
8:00 PMAlabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida (Central), Illinois, Kansas (Central), Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan (Eastern), Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire (many towns close earlier), New Jersey, North Dakota (Central), Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota (Central), Tennessee, Texas (Central), Washington DC
8:30 PMArkansas
9:00 PMArizona, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas (Mountain), Louisiana, Michigan (Central), Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota (Mountain), South Dakota (Mountain), Texas (Mountain), Wisconsin, Wyoming
10:00 PMIdaho (Mountain), Montana, Nevada, Oregon (Mountain), Utah
11:00 PMCalifornia, Idaho (Pacific), Oregon (Pacific), Washington
12:00 AMAlaska (Alaska time), Hawaii
1:00 AMAlaska (Aleutian)

All times Eastern Standard Time on Nov 3 (DST ends Nov 1). Split-zone states list each part. House districts that close early/late: IN-1, IN-8 at 7; KY-1, KY-2 at 7; FL-1, FL-2 at 8; KS-1 at 9; MI-1 at 9; TX-16, TX-23 at 9; ID-2 at 10, ID-1 at 11. Confirm against each SOS before Election Day.

Source: 270toWin (via The Green Papers and Daily Kos). Times are when the last polls close; confirm with your state election office.

What moved this week

  1. 1Since yesterday's edition (Oct 22): South Carolina Senate moved from Likely R (R +5.6) to Lean R (R +4.9) as three more checked polls came in, and South Dakota governor moved from Likely R to Safe R after its first checked poll.
  2. 2Senate control in my simulation: 60.0% to 60.1% (median 51 D, range 48 to 54, unchanged). Governors: median 27 D, range now 23 to 30 (was 24 to 30), majority odds 70.8% to 70.0%. House: unchanged at 231 D (219 to 242).
  3. 3I added 105 polls that VoteHub's feed missed, each matched to its published release (largest moves: New Mexico governor average from D +17.0 on one poll to D +6.9 on three, Nebraska Senate and governor a little closer).
  4. 4SoCal Strategies is now on my banned list after FiftyPlusOne flagged it as a fake pollster [134]. None of its polls were in my data.
  5. 5Ohio: the VoteHub/Verasight poll (Oct 1 to 20, likely voters) is counted once, matched to its own release: Brown 47.5, Husted 43.6; Acton 46.2, Ramaswamy 45.4 [136].
  6. 6Money: Reid Hoffman's gifts to the pro-Talarico Lone Star Rising PAC now total $16.5M through Oct 14, per the pre-general FEC report filed Oct 22 [222].
  7. 7Early vote numbers for every state now come from the UF Election Lab.
  8. 8Sabato (Oct 22): Ohio governor to Leans D, Michigan governor to Likely D, Alabama and Oklahoma governor to Likely R.
  9. 9Silver Bulletin (Wed Oct 21) removed and permanently banned Wedgewood Polls after the firm admitted on Oct 20 that it fabricated most of its polls [94]. My averages drop it too.

Fact checks

Tennessee governor, checked

The claim

A widely shared post put Marsha Blackburn (R) at 99.2% with a projected R+24.4 margin.

What I found

Real markets on Oct 22: Kalshi 93.8% Blackburn, 6.2% Jerri Green (D); Polymarket about 94% to 5%. PredictIt lists no general-election market. The Pollsmax model the post credits showed 99.0% and R+22.4 when I checked. Cook and Sabato rate it Safe R; my composite is Likely R (R+11.6). Latest poll: Spry Strategies (R), Oct 10 to 16, Blackburn 43.5, Green 32. Past results: 2018 R+21.0, 2022 R+32.0.

Bottom line

No current market or model I found matches 99.2% with R+24.4. Blackburn is a clear favorite either way.

Mississippi Senate, checked

The claim

Posts said the race between Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) and Scott Colom (D) is within the margin of error.

What I found

That claim rested on a Wedgewood poll (Hyde-Smith +4) that the firm later admitted was fabricated; Silver Bulletin removed and permanently banned Wedgewood on Wed Oct 21 [94]. Confirmed: Senate Majority PAC placed an initial $1.2M TV buy for Colom (Politico, Oct 20) and Trump plans a rally in Corinth on Oct 26 (WJTV). Cook moved the race to Likely R on Oct 20.

Bottom line

The spending and the rally are real; the close poll is not. My composite rates it from the remaining data.

Florida: a single day vs the full picture

The claim

A widely shared post said day 4 of Florida early voting was R+16.1 (Republicans 61,357, Democrats 40,926) [76].

What I found

That count was one partial day of in-person voting by party registration, posted at 1:57 PM ET; the same account later put the full day at R+12.2. The official state file covering Oct 22 posts around 8 AM Oct 23, so the day cannot be verified yet. Official cumulative picture through Oct 21: Republicans lead early in-person voting by 4.4 points, Democrats lead mail ballots by 7.0, and Democrats lead all ballots cast by 3.3 [5].

Bottom line

One day of one voting method is not the full picture. Party registration of voters, not how they voted.

How others see it

ForecasterSenateHouseAs ofLink
Silver Bulletin (FLIPR)D 75%D 94%Oct 19 forecast, reported Oct 21Open
Decision Desk HQD 57% (51 seats)D 78% (236 seats)Oct 22, 2:18 PMOpen
Split Ticket / The ArgumentD 65%D 89%Oct 14, as reportedOpen
VoteHubD 59%235 D seats expectedOct 19Open
The EconomistD 60%Democrats "heavy favourites"Senate Oct 7 (via Vote-Scope); House headline Oct 22Open
Kalshi (market)D 68%D 91.6%Oct 23Open
Polymarket (market)D 67.5%D 92.5%Oct 23Open
Election Lab (mine, estimate)D 60% (51 seats)D 92% in my district simulation (231 seats, blended)Oct 23Method

Each forecaster's own headline figure, with the date it was published or reported. Linked, not copied. None of these enter my model except the markets.

Early vote

Early vote counts show who has voted, not how they voted. Party registration is not vote choice, and Republicans have tended to vote more on Election Day.

Nationally: 20,935,402 ballots per UF Election Lab[65].

StateTotalIn personMailSplitSource
TX2,270,6172,159,850110,767No party registration reportedUF Election Lab, as of 10/22/2026 [65]
FL1,981,475763,6661,217,809D 804,988 (40.6%), R 770,639 (38.9%), other or none 405,848 (20.5%)UF Election Lab, as of 10/22/2026 [65]
GA1,467,6501,396,77770,873No party registration reportedUF Election Lab, as of 10/22/2026 [65]
NC1,101,3221,050,22651,096D 473,966 (43.0%), R 248,121 (22.5%), other or none 379,235 (34.4%)UF Election Lab, as of 10/22/2026 [65]
MI920,773n/a920,773No party registration reportedUF Election Lab, as of 10/22/2026 [65]
AZ743,697n/a743,697D 288,774 (38.8%), R 285,289 (38.4%), other or none 169,634 (22.8%)UF Election Lab, as of 10/22/2026 [65]
PA723,055n/a723,055D 484,534 (67.0%), R 174,012 (24.1%), other or none 64,509 (8.9%)UF Election Lab, as of 10/22/2026 [65]
WI420,287103,210317,077No party registration reportedUF Election Lab, as of 10/22/2026 [65]
OH838,018489,141348,877No party registration reportedUF Election Lab, as of 10/22/2026 [65]

Source: UF Election Lab (University of Florida, election.lab.ufl.edu), compiled from state election office reports. Licensed CC BY-NC-ND 4.0. This site is independent and is not affiliated with the UF Election Lab.

Texas

  • Texas, official: 2,284,398 votes through Oct 21 (2,190,203 in person, 94,195 mail), Texas SOS data via Transparency USA, 244 of 254 counties reporting. Same day in 2022: 1,617,402. [4,47]
  • Texas, VoteHub model: Talarico 45.8% to 55.0%, Paxton 42.8% to 52.0% (VoteHub's model, posted 6:46 PM ET Oct 22). VoteHub rates it Tilt D. [43]
  • Harris and Dallas: through Oct 22 per the Texas SOS roster, Dallas 279,245, Harris 258,794 (232,081 in person, 26,713 mail). Harris County's own reports run higher because the SOS mail roster lags. [66]

Florida top counties

CountyMail returnedEarly in personRepDemNPA and otherTotal
Miami-Dade107,89353,54353,80766,27441,355161,436
Palm Beach92,82337,65336,09066,72227,664130,476
Broward66,26851,35625,76167,59924,264117,624
Hillsborough71,37038,69039,42947,58423,047110,060
Pinellas92,52314,81640,86043,08823,391107,339
Orange57,05439,23426,51748,30621,46596,288
Lee72,90822,82546,82927,86621,03895,733
Sarasota48,38217,13926,92525,62412,97265,521
Brevard37,55826,49628,71022,41812,92664,054
Volusia36,24917,83522,45520,13111,49854,084
Polk33,48016,65720,51120,4969,13050,137
Pasco30,78518,92320,48518,24910,97449,708
Duval19,81929,41417,99923,7377,49749,233
Manatee28,02413,19118,70914,3668,14041,215
Seminole22,25216,92514,36216,3268,48939,177

Top 15 Florida counties by ballots cast, Florida Division of Elections county reports compiled 8:05 AM Oct 22. Statewide: mail ballots D 484,785 to R 405,970; early in person R 234,959 to D 210,883.

Florida, full picture

Early in person

R +4.4

Republicans
234,959 (42.5%)
Democrats
210,883 (38.2%)
NPA and other
106,356
Total
552,198

Mail ballots returned

D +7.0

Republicans
405,970 (35.9%)
Democrats
484,785 (42.9%)
NPA and other
239,702
Total
1,130,457

All ballots so far

D +3.3

Republicans
640,929 (38.1%)
Democrats
695,668 (41.3%)
NPA and other
346,058
Total
1,682,655

Florida Division of Elections, statewide totals compiled 8:05 AM ET Oct 22 (cumulative through Oct 21) [5]. Party registration of voters, not how they voted.

Counties

CountyBallots so farDetailSource as of
Dallas, TX279,245Ahead of Harris (258,794) even though Harris has about 1.25M more registered votersTexas SOS, through Oct 22
Maricopa, AZ452,791Mail ballots returned, 22.7% of 1,994,417 sentUF Election Lab via Stealth Analytics, Oct 22
Fulton, GA163,126157,925 in person. Georgia statewide: 1,467,650, already 37.0% of total 2022 turnoutUF Election Lab from GA SOS, Oct 22
Miami-Dade, FL161,436By registration: D 66,274, R 53,807, NPA and other 41,355Florida DOS, 8:05 AM Oct 22
Philadelphia, PA68,782Mail returned. Registration: D 59,815, R 3,928, other 5,039PA DOS, 9:36 AM Oct 22
Bucks, PA57,171Mail returned. Registration: D 34,698, R 16,861, other 5,612PA DOS, 9:36 AM Oct 22
Wake, NC137,030Registration: D 61,745, unaffiliated 56,160, R 19,125NC State Board of Elections, Oct 22 file
Mecklenburg, NC112,290Registration: D 57,425, unaffiliated 40,301, R 14,564NC State Board of Elections, Oct 22 file
Clark, NV177,99468,734 in person, 109,260 mailUF Election Lab from NV SOS, Oct 22
Wayne, MI144,533Absentee returned, 41.3% of 349,568 requested; in-person early voting not open yetUF Election Lab from MI SOS, Oct 22
Oakland, MI131,217Absentee returned, 38.6% of 339,970 requestedUF Election Lab from MI SOS, Oct 22
Stark, OH27,359In person 14,397 already passes the 2022 final of 13,821 (whole 2022 cycle)UF Election Lab, Oct 22

Source: UF Election Lab (University of Florida, election.lab.ufl.edu), compiled from state election office reports. Licensed CC BY-NC-ND 4.0. This site is independent and is not affiliated with the UF Election Lab.

Stark County, Ohio in detail: open Ohio on the map.

Florida shows two different pictures: Republicans lead early in-person voting by registration (234,959 to 210,883) while Democrats lead mail ballots (484,785 to 405,970), per the Florida DOS. Registration party is not vote choice.

Who publishes this data

Official, read directly: Florida Division of Elections, NC State Board of Elections, Pennsylvania Department of State (data.pa.gov), Texas Secretary of State. Everywhere else I use the UF Election Lab (Dr. Michael McDonald), a nonpartisan aggregator that compiles each state's reports; Arizona's county files come through Stealth Analytics and Virginia's through VPAP. County data credit: UF Election Lab (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0).

Coverage: county or town counts for 45 states. Alabama, New Hampshire and Missouri publish no counts during voting; New York early voting starts Oct 24; Alaska and DC are state-level only. Minnesota, Mississippi and Maine data were a few days old. Totals mix as-of times from Oct 16 to Oct 22.

Source: UF Election Lab (University of Florida, election.lab.ufl.edu), compiled from state election office reports. Licensed CC BY-NC-ND 4.0. This site is independent and is not affiliated with the UF Election Lab.

Money

Senate ad spending, both sides

Ohio
$467M
Texas
$368M
Michigan
$220M
Maine
$208M
Iowa
$203M
Alaska
$90.5M
New Hampshire
$77.6M
Kansas
$60M
South Carolina
$33.8M
Minnesota
$7.1M

Senate general-election ad spending by both sides through Oct 20, per AdImpact. AdImpact puts Republican spending in the ten most competitive Senate races at $1.03 billion and Democratic spending at $710 million. [54]

Context

Background numbers. The national mood (generic ballot, special elections and approval) feeds my forecast. Economy and gas are context only, not weighted.

National environment: generic ballot D+8.8, approval 38%Show

D+8.8

Generic ballot, average of 6 aggregators

Range D +7.9 (DDHQ) to D +9.2 (Silver Bulletin), Oct 19 to 22 [12,89,90].

38%

Presidential approval

RealClearPolitics average, 60.5% disapprove, Oct 21 [91]. Ballotpedia 30 day: 37% [15].

Trump approval: 38.3 approve / 60.5 disapprove

RealClearPolitics average, Oct 21

Generic ballot

Generic ballot averages as published by each source, Oct 22. Each name links to where I read it.

MeasureValueDate or basis
Generic ballot, Silver BulletinD +9.2Oct 22, 2026
Generic ballot, FiftyPlusOneD +9.1Oct 22, 2026
Generic ballot, NBC NewsD +9.0Oct 22, 2026
Generic ballot, VoteHubD +9.0Oct 19, 2026
Generic ballot, RealClearPoliticsD +8.3Oct 22, 2026
Generic ballot, Decision Desk HQD +8.1Oct 22, 2026
Special elections (110 since Jan 2025)D +12 calculated environment; Democrats ran 12.5 points ahead of HarrisAug 19, 2026 (The Downballot)
Presidential approval, RCP average38.3% approve, 60.5% disapproveOct 21, 2026
Presidential approval, NYT/Siena36% approve, 59% disapprove (3,494 LV)Oct 12 to 19, 2026
My national mood (estimate)D +9.6Blend: 70% generic ballot, 15% specials, 15% approval

The Downballot and Cook both note that special-election swings have run ahead of the House vote in recent cycles, so specials get only 15% [88,99].

Also tracked

MeasureValueSource, date
Generic ballot, ABC/WaPo/IpsosD 52, R 44 (likely voters)2,032 RV/LV, Oct 9 to 13
Voters 18 to 29, generic ballotD 63, R 26 among likely voters (D 45, R 24 registered)Harvard Youth Poll (Ipsos), Sep 30 to Oct 7, 749 LV
Presidential approval, Ballotpedia37% approve, 61% disapprove30 day average, Oct 22
Direction of country31% right, 65% wrongBallotpedia 30 day average, Oct 22
Economy, for contextShow

46.3

Consumer sentiment (UMich)

Prelim. Oct 2026; Sep 48.1, Oct 2025 53.6

Source

$4.29 regular, $6.32 diesel

Gas, national average (AAA)

Oct 23, 2026

Source

4.2%

Unemployment rate (BLS)

September 2026, released Oct 2

Source

+3.7% over 12 months

Consumer prices, CPI (BLS)

September 2026, released Oct 14; core +2.6%, gasoline +34.2%

Source

Context only. These numbers are not weighted in my forecast. Sources: University of Michigan [109], AAA [78], BLS jobs report [111], BLS CPI [110].

Gas: $4.29 regular, $6.32 diesel, by stateShow

Gas prices by state, Oct 22, 2026 (AAA regular unleaded; national average $4.27). Bars start at $0. [8] [2]

California
$6.08
Hawaii
$5.65
Washington
$5.34
Nevada
$5.34
Oregon
$4.90
Alaska
$4.89
Idaho
$4.75
Utah
$4.73
Illinois
$4.67
Michigan
$4.61
Arizona
$4.56
Pennsylvania
$4.48
Wyoming
$4.45
Montana
$4.44
New York
$4.40
District of Columbia
$4.38
Vermont
$4.37
Nebraska
$4.35
Connecticut
$4.33
Maine
$4.32
New Mexico
$4.29
Colorado
$4.27
South Dakota
$4.25
Massachusetts
$4.24
New Hampshire
$4.23
West Virginia
$4.23
Wisconsin
$4.22
Minnesota
$4.21
New Jersey
$4.20
Rhode Island
$4.18
North Dakota
$4.13
Iowa
$4.12
Virginia
$4.11
Ohio
$4.08
Florida
$4.06
Maryland
$4.05
Delaware
$3.98
Kentucky
$3.97
Kansas
$3.96
Oklahoma
$3.95
Missouri
$3.95
Arkansas
$3.88
Indiana
$3.88
Mississippi
$3.87
Alabama
$3.86
South Carolina
$3.85
Louisiana
$3.83
Tennessee
$3.82
Texas
$3.76
Georgia
$3.70
North Carolina
$3.55

State gas taxes (EIA: about 9 cents a gallon in Alaska to 74 cents in California, July 1, 2026), refinery supply and state blend rules drive most of the differences between states. [3]

Diesel: the AAA national average was $6.31 a gallon on Oct 22, against $3.63 a year earlier [78]. USDA announced an $8 billion Harvest Fuel Relief Program on Oct 19, one-time payments to farmers based on modeled 2026 losses rather than fuel receipts [79], and the White House issued a Defense Production Act determination on refining capacity on Oct 22 [80].

Poll quality

446 Senate and governor polls from Aug 1 to Oct 22 count in my averages, from 121 pollsters; 26 were dropped. 131 of them I added or corrected myself after checking the pollster's own release. Each margin is adjusted for its pollster's house effect. Wedgewood Polls admitted on Tue Oct 20 that it fabricated most of its polls, and Silver Bulletin removed and permanently banned it on Wed Oct 21 [94]. AP reported fake Median Strategies polls in August [96]. Grades: Silver Bulletin pollster ratings, Jan 14, 2026 [83].

Dropped pollsterPolls removedReason
ActiVote11Non-scientific opt-in app poll (unrated by Silver Bulletin)
Wedgewood Polls9Admitted fabricating polls Oct 20; Silver Bulletin removed and permanently banned it Wed Oct 21, 2026
Big Data Poll6Silver Bulletin grade F (banned or failing)
Most-used pollstersSilver Bulletin gradePolls in my averages
YouGovB32
co/efficientB22
InsiderAdvantageB+22
Emerson CollegeA21
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchA-18
Trafalgar GroupB15
The New York Times/Siena UniversityA14
University of New HampshireB-14
Quantus InsightsB/C13
Marist UniversityA-12
Suffolk UniversityA-12
SurveyUSAA10

Method

    Step 1

    Polls, 35%

    VoteHub's free poll feed [82], plus polls missing from it that I checked against the pollster's or sponsor's own release. Each poll is weighted by its Silver Bulletin pollster grade [83], how recent it is (weight halves about every two weeks), and sample size. Campaign or party polls count half. Fake, banned or F-graded pollsters and opt-in app polls are dropped. Weight halves with fewer than three graded polls; dropped with none.

    Step 2

    Skew check (house effects)

    Each poll's margin is adjusted by its pollster's Silver Bulletin house effect [83], the pollster's average lean against results (for example, a pollster that runs 1.4 points toward Democrats has 1.4 points taken off the Democrat's margin). Unrated pollsters get no adjustment. When a poll reports both likely and registered voters I use likely voters, and for Alaska's ranked-choice races I use final-round numbers. No single poll can carry more than half of a race's poll weight.

    Step 3

    Fundamentals, 25%

    State lean from the 2024 and 2020 presidential results (75/25) [84] plus the national mood (D +9.6). Senate incumbents get 2.5 points plus half of how far they ran ahead of or behind their state in their last race [85]. Governor races follow party lean less, so they use one third of lean plus mood, and incumbents get 5.0 points. These numbers are my assumptions.

    Step 4

    Markets, 20%

    Average of Polymarket and Kalshi, turned into a margin (a 67% favorite equals about 2.6 points).

    Step 5

    Expert ratings, 20%

    Cook, Sabato and Inside Elections turned into points (Safe 20, Likely 10, Lean 4, Tilt 1.5, Toss-up 0), then shifted toward my national mood, as Silver Bulletin's model does [98]. As of Oct 22 the ratings imply about D +8.69, so the shift is small (+0.91 points).

    Step 6

    National mood

    70% generic ballot average of six aggregators (D +8.78), 15% special elections (about D +12) [88], 15% presidential approval (net -22.2, counted as half that margin, my assumption) [91]. Result: D +9.6.

    Step 7

    Rating and ranges

    Margin over 15 is Safe, 5 to 15 Likely, 1 to 5 Lean, under 1 Tilt, under 0.3 Toss-up. 20,000 simulations with 4.5 points of race error and 2.5 points of shared national error; ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile.

    Step 8

    House

    My district simulation of 49 competitive seats (de-biased Cook and Inside Elections ratings plus district polls) counts 60%, the markets' seat estimate 20% and the raters' seat estimates 20%. No district fundamentals yet.

These are estimates, not certainties. An independent, nonpartisan composite for discussion. Market prices and ratings change daily; each edition is dated.

Rating scale: Safe over 15, Likely 5 to 15, Lean 1 to 5, Tilt under 1, Toss-up under 0.3 (composite margin, points)

Reader Poll

Who are you voting for in 2026? The reader poll has its own page now, with running totals by state.

Take the Reader Poll

Sources

Numbered and grouped. Sources read Oct 22 to 23, 2026; each shows its own read date. County data credit: UF Election Lab at the University of Florida (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0), used non-commercially with attribution.

County and statewide early vote data: UF Election Lab (University of Florida, election.lab.ufl.edu), compiled from state election office reports, CC BY-NC-ND 4.0. This site is not affiliated with the UF Election Lab.

Poll data: VoteHub (votehub.com), CC BY 4.0. Pollster grades: Silver Bulletin.

Official data

  1. 1FEC, V-PAC: Victors, Not Victims (C00892919)Yass contributions $10M (3/6/25), $5M (1/12/26), $5M (3/27/26), $10M (8/10/26, e-filed); receipts $59.7M through 9/30/26
  2. 2NCSL State Partisan CompositionLegislative control, governor party, state control by state (updated Oct 6, 2026)
  3. 3EIA state motor fuel taxes (July 1, 2026, revised Aug)Total state gasoline taxes and fees by state; average 33.76 cents
  4. 4Texas SOS early vote data via Transparency USA2,284,398 votes through Oct 21 (244 of 254 counties), as of 4:03 PM CT Oct 22
  5. 5Florida Division of Elections, VBM and early voting statisticsCumulative mail and early votes by party, compiled 8:05 AM Oct 22
  6. 6Ohio Secretary of State early voting release (Oct 13)228,470 early votes cast as of Oct 13 (latest statewide release found)
  7. 7Ohio SOS absentee and early voting dashboardOfficial county-level daily data (interactive dashboard; see link)
  8. 8AAA state gas price averagesRegular unleaded by state, price as of 10/22/26; national $4.27
  9. 79USDA: $8 billion Harvest Fuel Relief Program (Oct 19)One-time payments to farmers for modeled 2026 losses incl. higher input costs; rates due in November
  10. 80White House: Defense Production Act determination on petroleum refining capacity (Oct 22)Section 303 determination on domestic petroleum production, refining and logistics capacity; no dollar amount in the text I read
  11. 222FEC pre-general report, Lone Star Rising PACReid Hoffman $5M on Oct 9, $16.5M total through Oct 14

Polls and poll averages

  1. 12Silver Bulletin, generic ballotGeneric ballot D +9.2 (D +9.7 likely voter); forecast pages paywalled
  2. 13The Hill / DDHQ generic ballotGeneric ballot 50.4 D, 42.5 R
  3. 15Ballotpedia Polling IndexPresidential approval 37/61, direction of country 31/65, poll list
  4. 16Fox News Ohio poll (Oct 15 to 19)OH Gov Acton 50, Ramaswamy 48; OH Sen Brown 52, Husted 47 (1,592 LV)
  5. 17PollingSource, Ohio governor poll listOhio governor poll list with dates and samples
  6. 18Emerson College Polling / Nexstar, Texas (Oct 17 to 19)TX Senate Talarico 49.4, Paxton 47.8; TX Gov Abbott 51.1, Hinojosa 46.6 (1,000 LV)
  7. 19Poll Vault (Sean Trende), Levee Math (Oct 22)Confirms 10 new district polls by RCP with Emerson; full release paywalled
  8. 20Call the Map, Emerson College poll archiveDistrict toplines and samples, Oct 12 to 14, from the Poll Vault release
  9. 2199chambers, Emerson College 2026 pollsCross-check of the same district toplines and samples; NY-17 Emerson/PIX11
  10. 22Cook Political Report battleground polls (Oct 9 to 13)TX, IA, OH Senate and governor toplines; New River Strategies (D) and GS Strategy Group (R)
  11. 23ABC News / Washington Post / Ipsos poll (Oct 9 to 13)Generic ballot D 52, R 44 likely voters; 2,032 RV/LV
  12. 24Harvard Youth Poll, Fall 2026Ages 18 to 29 generic ballot D 63, R 26 likely voters; Sep 30 to Oct 7
  13. 25PredictionEdge, Tennessee governor poll listSpry Strategies Oct 10 to 16 Blackburn 43.5, Green 32; TargetSmart Sep 9 to 12 45 to 36
  14. 73The Hill / DDHQ, 2026 Kansas Senate polling averageHamilton 46.2, Marshall 45.8 (13 polls), Oct 23 build
  15. 74KSN via FOX4: What polls say about the Kansas Senate raceRealClearPolitics average Marshall 46.0, Hamilton 45.7; FiftyPlusOne Hamilton 46.9, Marshall 45.6; one October poll (InsiderAdvantage Oct 13 to 14, Marshall +1)
  16. 112The New York Times/Siena poll, Kansas (crosstabs)Kansas Senate, Sep 22 to 30, 605 LV: Hamilton 45, Marshall 45
  17. 113YouGov Kansas poll (topline document)Kansas Senate, Sep 24 to Oct 4, 2,255 LV: Hamilton 48, Marshall 45
  18. 114Trafalgar Group Kansas statewide survey (PDF)Kansas Senate, Sep 29 to Oct 1, 1,095 LV: Hamilton 44.4, Marshall 43.5
  19. 115InsiderAdvantage Senate surveys: Alaska, Kansas, MichiganOct 9 to 10, 1,200 LV each: AK final round Peltola 50, Sullivan 48; KS Hamilton 48, Marshall 47; MI El-Sayed 48, Rogers 46
  20. 116GBAO memo for the Hamilton campaign (PDF)Kansas Senate, Sep 30 to Oct 4, 600 LV: Hamilton 46, Marshall 41 (campaign poll, half weight)
  21. 117Global Strategy Group Kansas memo (PDF)Kansas, Sep 13 to 16, 800 LV: Senate Hamilton 47, Marshall 43; governor Holscher 49, Masterson 46 (Democratic-aligned, half weight)
  22. 118co/efficient Kansas pollKansas, Sep 8 to 10, 915 LV: Senate Marshall 49, Hamilton 44; governor Masterson 51, Holscher 43
  23. 119Free State Research Kansas poll (PDF)Kansas, Oct 5 to 10, 564 LV: Senate Hamilton 47, Marshall 43; governor Masterson 48, Holscher 44
  24. 120Seven Days: Vermont Public poll by Braun ResearchVermont governor, Sep 10 to 21, 732 LV: Scott 44, Janoo 34
  25. 121State Navigate Vermont statewide pollVermont governor, Oct 2 to 4, 948 LV: Scott 46, Janoo 43 (with leaners)
  26. 122Noble Predictive Insights Nevada poll releaseNevada governor, Sep 22 to 26, 708 LV: Lombardo 42, Ford 40 (likely-voter numbers now used)
  27. 123Global Strategy Group Nevada memoNevada governor, Oct 8 to 13, 700 LV: Lombardo 48, Ford 47 (Ford-aligned, half weight)
  28. 124AJC poll by UGA School of Public and International AffairsGeorgia governor, Oct 7 to 15, 1,000 LV: Jackson 46, Bottoms 45
  29. 125University of Houston Hobby School Texas surveyTexas, Oct 10 to 14, 2,000 LV: Senate Talarico 48, Paxton 46; governor Abbott 49, Hinojosa 46
  30. 126Fox News Maine poll topline (PDF)Maine, Oct 16 to 20, 1,514 LV: Senate Jackson 49, Collins 49; governor Pingree 49, Charles 39, Bennett 9
  31. 127Suffolk University Maine poll release (PDF)Maine, Oct 8 to 11, 500 LV: Senate Jackson 49, Collins 47; governor Pingree 49, Charles 38
  32. 128NPA Polling Nebraska tracker, round 2 (PDF)Nebraska, Oct 15 to 18, 598 LV: Senate Ricketts 50, Osborn 47 head to head; governor Pillen 47, Walz 41
  33. 129Data for Progress Alaska pollAlaska ranked-choice final rounds: Senate Peltola 51, Sullivan 49; governor Kreiss-Tomkins 53, Wilson 47
  34. 132FiftyPlusOne Nevada governor averageIndependent average for cross-checking: Lombardo 44.1, Ford 42.6, about Lombardo +1.5 (Oct 22)
  35. 134FiftyPlusOne, SoCal Strategies investigationSoCal Strategies flagged as a fake pollster; I drop it (none of its polls were in my data)
  36. 135G. Elliott Morris, how FiftyPlusOne busted a fake pollsterSecond report on the SoCal Strategies finding, Oct 22
  37. 136VoteHub/Verasight Ohio survey (Oct 1 to 20, 531 LV)Senate Brown 47.5, Husted 43.6; Governor Acton 46.2, Ramaswamy 45.4 (with leaners, likely voters)
  38. 137Cygnal, AL-GOV poll (2026-10-16 to 2026-10-17)Doug Jones 40.0 vs Tommy Tuberville 51.0 (500 LV)
  39. 138Hendrix College, AR-GOV poll (2026-10-08 to 2026-10-13)Fredrick Love 32.0 vs Sarah Huckabee Sanders 51.0 (709 LV)
  40. 139HighGround Inc., AZ-GOV poll (2026-10-06 to 2026-10-08)Katie Hobbs 51.0 vs Andy Biggs 34.0 (400 LV)
  41. 140GrayHouse, AZ-GOV poll (2026-10-06 to 2026-10-08)Katie Hobbs 50.0 vs Andy Biggs 44.0 (550 LV)
  42. 141Wick, AZ-GOV poll (2026-10-03 to 2026-10-06)Katie Hobbs 49.0 vs Andy Biggs 43.0 (1513 LV)
  43. 142GQR Research/Public Opinion Strategies, AZ-GOV poll (2026-09-30 to 2026-10-05)Katie Hobbs 49.0 vs Andy Biggs 45.0 (600 LV)
  44. 143Manhattan Institute, CA-GOV poll (2026-09-24 to 2026-10-01)Xavier Becerra 57.0 vs Steve Hilton 39.0 (1000 LV)
  45. 144Independent Voter Project, CA-GOV poll (2026-09-23 to 2026-09-28)Xavier Becerra 48.0 vs Steve Hilton 38.0 (2906 LV)
  46. 145YouGov, CT-GOV poll (2026-10-08 to 2026-10-12)Ned Lamont 53.0 vs Ryan Fazio 32.0 (1000 RV)
  47. 146co/efficient, CT-GOV poll (2026-09-16 to 2026-09-17)Ned Lamont 48.0 vs Ryan Fazio 41.0 (979 LV)
  48. 147Stetson University, FL-GOV poll (2026-10-01 to 2026-10-09)David Jolly 41.0 vs Byron Donalds 52.0 (716 LV)
  49. 148YouGov, FL-GOV poll (2026-09-28 to 2026-10-05)David Jolly 45.0 vs Byron Donalds 47.0 (3813 LV)
  50. 149YouGov, GA-GOV poll (2026-09-15 to 2026-09-18)Keisha Lance Bottoms 44.0 vs Rick Jackson 45.0 (3414 RV)
  51. 150Trafalgar Group, GA-SEN poll (2026-10-07 to 2026-10-09)Jon Ossoff 51.0 vs Mike Collins 43.0 (1101 LV)
  52. 151Suffolk University, IA-GOV poll (2026-10-01 to 2026-10-04)Rob Sand 55.0 vs Zach Lahn 43.0 (500 LV)
  53. 152Trafalgar Group, IA-SEN poll (2026-10-13 to 2026-10-15)Josh Turek 44.0 vs Ashley Hinson 46.0 (1094 LV)
  54. 153The New York Times/Siena College, IA-SEN poll (2026-09-22 to 2026-10-01)Josh Turek 47.0 vs Ashley Hinson 48.0 (606 LV)
  55. 154Trafalgar Group, IA-SEN poll (2026-09-16 to 2026-09-18)Josh Turek 42.0 vs Ashley Hinson 44.0 (1089 LV)
  56. 155YouGov, KS-GOV poll (2026-09-24 to 2026-10-04)Cindy Holscher 44.0 vs Ty Masterson 47.0 (2255 LV)
  57. 156Suffolk University, MA-GOV poll (2026-10-14 to 2026-10-18)Maura Healey 59.0 vs Mike Minogue 36.0 (500 LV)
  58. 157YouGov, MA-GOV poll (2026-10-05 to 2026-10-12)Maura Healey 56.0 vs Mike Minogue 31.0 (800 RV)
  59. 158MassINC Polling Group, MA-GOV poll (2026-09-14 to 2026-09-22)Maura Healey 54 vs Mike Minogue 32 (800 LV)
  60. 159Rasmussen Reports, ME-SEN poll (2026-10-05 to 2026-10-08)Troy Jackson 49.0 vs Susan Collins 47.0 (804 LV)
  61. 160YouGov, ME-SEN poll (2026-09-23 to 2026-10-01)Troy Jackson 50.0 vs Susan Collins 50.0 (1144 RV)
  62. 161InsiderAdvantage, ME-SEN poll (2026-09-22 to 2026-09-23)Troy Jackson 46.0 vs Susan Collins 46.0 (1200 LV)
  63. 162YouGov, MI-GOV poll (2026-09-22 to 2026-10-04)Jocelyn Benson 48.0 vs John James 45.0 (3949 LV)
  64. 163Mitchell Research & Communications, MI-GOV poll (2026-10-01 to 2026-10-01)Jocelyn Benson 46.0 vs John James 39.0 (682 LV)
  65. 164Marist College, MI-GOV poll (2026-09-24 to 2026-09-27)Jocelyn Benson 53.0 vs John James 41.0 (1235 RV)
  66. 165Guidant Polling & Strategy, MI-GOV poll (2026-09-20 to 2026-09-27)Jocelyn Benson 50.0 vs John James 45.0 (800 LV)
  67. 166Torchlight Strategies, MI-GOV poll (2026-09-15 to 2026-09-19)Jocelyn Benson 42.0 vs John James 41.0 (643 LV)
  68. 167Rasmussen Reports, MI-SEN poll (2026-10-12 to 2026-10-14)Abdul El-Sayed 46.0 vs Mike Rogers 44.0 (798 LV)
  69. 168Quantus Polls and News, MI-SEN poll (2026-10-05 to 2026-10-06)Abdul El-Sayed 48.0 vs Mike Rogers 47.0 (762 LV)
  70. 169InsiderAdvantage, MI-SEN poll (2026-09-16 to 2026-09-17)Abdul El-Sayed 47.0 vs Mike Rogers 45.0 (1200 LV)
  71. 170Morning Consult, MN-GOV poll (2026-10-02 to 2026-10-07)Amy Klobuchar 48.0 vs Lisa Demuth 39.0 (1000 RV)
  72. 171co/efficient, MN-GOV poll (2026-09-14 to 2026-09-15)Amy Klobuchar 47.0 vs Lisa Demuth 45.0 (833 LV)
  73. 172Rasmussen Reports, MN-SEN poll (2026-10-20 to 2026-10-21)Peggy Flanagan 48.0 vs Michele Tafoya 45.0 (1182 LV)
  74. 173Trafalgar Group, MN-SEN poll (2026-10-13 to 2026-10-15)Peggy Flanagan 48.0 vs Michele Tafoya 45.0 (1079 LV)
  75. 174Rasmussen Reports, MN-SEN poll (2026-10-05 to 2026-10-07)Peggy Flanagan 48.0 vs Michele Tafoya 45.0 (856 LV)
  76. 175InsiderAdvantage, MN-SEN poll (2026-09-28 to 2026-09-29)Peggy Flanagan 46.0 vs Michele Tafoya 45.0 (1200 LV)
  77. 176Trafalgar Group, NC-SEN poll (2026-10-08 to 2026-10-10)Roy Cooper 49.0 vs Michael Whatley 41.0 (1091 LV)
  78. 177Opinion Diagnostics, NC-SEN poll (2026-09-17 to 2026-09-20)Roy Cooper 51.0 vs Michael Whatley 41.0 (857 LV)
  79. 178Catawba College/YouGov, NC-SEN poll (2026-09-04 to 2026-09-15)Roy Cooper 47.0 vs Michael Whatley 35.0 (885 LV)
  80. 179Public Policy Polling, NE-GOV poll (2026-10-13 to 2026-10-14)Lynne Walz 46.0 vs Jim Pillen 48.0 (571 RV)
  81. 180YouGov, NE-GOV poll (2026-09-24 to 2026-10-03)Lynne Walz 43.0 vs Jim Pillen 44.0 (1809 LV)
  82. 181co/efficient, NE-GOV poll (2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30)Lynne Walz 38.0 vs Jim Pillen 43.0 (1113 LV)
  83. 182Saint Anselm College, NH-GOV poll (2026-10-19 to 2026-10-20)Cinde Warmington 42.0 vs Kelly Ayotte 50.0 (1672 LV)
  84. 183National Public Affairs, NH-GOV poll (2026-10-08 to 2026-10-12)Cinde Warmington 38.0 vs Kelly Ayotte 54.0 (600 LV)
  85. 184YouGov, NH-GOV poll (2026-09-28 to 2026-10-05)Cinde Warmington 40.0 vs Kelly Ayotte 49.0 (1520 LV)
  86. 185Saint Anselm College, NH-GOV poll (2026-09-28 to 2026-09-29)Cinde Warmington 45.0 vs Kelly Ayotte 52.0 (1042 LV)
  87. 186Trafalgar Group, NH-SEN poll (2026-09-26 to 2026-09-27)Chris Pappas 47.0 vs John E. Sununu 41.0 (1082 LV)
  88. 187Research & Polling Inc., NM-GOV poll (2026-10-01 to 2026-10-09)Deb Haaland 49.0 vs Gregg Hull 42.0 (1125 LV)
  89. 188SurveyUSA, NM-GOV poll (2026-09-25 to 2026-09-30)Deb Haaland 47.0 vs Gregg Hull 41.0 (567 LV)
  90. 189OnMessage Inc., NY-GOV poll (2026-10-01 to 2026-10-06)Kathy Hochul 50.0 vs Bruce Blakeman 46.0 (1000 LV)
  91. 190Marist College, NY-GOV poll (2026-10-01 to 2026-10-04)Kathy Hochul 53.0 vs Bruce Blakeman 42.0 (1361 RV)
  92. 191Siena College, NY-GOV poll (2026-09-11 to 2026-09-17)Kathy Hochul 50.0 vs Bruce Blakeman 41.0 (1144 LV)
  93. 192YouGov, OH-GOV poll (2026-09-18 to 2026-09-30)Amy Acton 48.0 vs Vivek Ramaswamy 44.0 (3780 LV)
  94. 193Rasmussen Reports, OH-SEN poll (2026-10-12 to 2026-10-14)Sherrod Brown 47.0 vs Jon Husted 49.0 (901 LV)
  95. 194The New York Times/Siena College, OH-SEN poll (2026-09-22 to 2026-10-01)Sherrod Brown 49.0 vs Jon Husted 46.0 (616 LV)
  96. 195GBAO, OR-GOV poll (2026-10-01 to 2026-10-04)Tina Kotek 46.0 vs Christine Drazan 42.0 (800 LV)
  97. 196DHM Research, OR-GOV poll (2026-09-17 to 2026-09-27)Tina Kotek 46.0 vs Christine Drazan 47.0 (915 LV)
  98. 197Quinnipiac University, PA-GOV poll (2026-10-01 to 2026-10-05)Josh Shapiro 59.0 vs Stacy Garrity 34.0 (1159 LV)
  99. 198Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc., PA-GOV poll (2026-09-22 to 2026-09-30)Josh Shapiro 52.0 vs Stacy Garrity 31.0 (700 LV)
  100. 199National Public Affairs, SC-GOV poll (2026-10-13 to 2026-10-16)Jermaine Johnson 41.0 vs Alan Wilson 51.0 (604 LV)
  101. 200Resonance Media, SC-GOV poll (2026-09-29 to 2026-10-03)Jermaine Johnson 35.0 vs Alan Wilson 45.0 (638 RV)
  102. 201Trafalgar Group, SC-SEN poll (2026-10-16 to 2026-10-18)Annie Andrews 46.0 vs Darline Graham 49.0 (1095 LV)
  103. 202Rasmussen Reports, SC-SEN poll (2026-10-05 to 2026-10-08)Annie Andrews 45.0 vs Darline Graham 49.0 (837 LV)
  104. 203Trafalgar Group, SC-SEN poll (2026-09-23 to 2026-09-25)Annie Andrews 42.0 vs Darline Graham 43.0 (1087 LV)
  105. 204Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, SD-GOV poll (2026-10-12 to 2026-10-14)Dan Ahlers 36.0 vs Larry Rhoden 56.0 (500 LV)
  106. 205Zenith Research, SD-SEN poll (2026-09-24 to 2026-09-27)Brian Bengs 47.0 vs Mike Rounds 53.0 (500 LV)
  107. 206YouGov, TX-GOV poll (2026-10-08 to 2026-10-16)Gina Hinojosa 48.0 vs Greg Abbott 52.0 (1492 RV)
  108. 207Marist College, TX-GOV poll (2026-10-08 to 2026-10-11)Gina Hinojosa 45.0 vs Greg Abbott 49.0 (n not published LV)
  109. 208GBAO, TX-GOV poll (2026-10-05 to 2026-10-08)Gina Hinojosa 47.0 vs Greg Abbott 45.0 (800 LV)
  110. 209YouGov, TX-GOV poll (2026-09-28 to 2026-10-05)Gina Hinojosa 48.0 vs Greg Abbott 47.0 (3625 LV)
  111. 210Marist College, TX-GOV poll (2026-09-17 to 2026-09-20)Gina Hinojosa 49.0 vs Greg Abbott 46.0 (1139 RV)
  112. 211Trafalgar Group, TX-SEN poll (2026-10-06 to 2026-10-08)James Talarico 47.0 vs Ken Paxton 44.0 (1086 LV)
  113. 212The New York Times/Siena College, TX-SEN poll (2026-09-21 to 2026-09-30)James Talarico 51.0 vs Ken Paxton 45.0 (615 LV)
  114. 213Rasmussen Reports, TX-SEN poll (2026-09-28 to 2026-09-29)James Talarico 46.0 vs Ken Paxton 45.0 (1128 LV)
  115. 214Trafalgar Group, TX-SEN poll (2026-09-15 to 2026-09-17)James Talarico 46.0 vs Ken Paxton 45.0 (1079 LV)
  116. 215Franklin & Marshall College, PA-GOV poll (2026-10-07 to 2026-10-18)Josh Shapiro 59 vs Stacy Garrity 36 (n not published LV)
  117. 216YouGov, FL-SEN poll (2026-10-02 to 2026-10-15)Angie Nixon 42 vs Ashley Moody 51 (825 RV)
  118. 217Research & Polling Inc., NM-SEN poll (2026-10-01 to 2026-10-09)Ben Ray Lujan 53 vs Larry Marker 37 (1125 LV)
  119. 218Suffolk University, OH-SEN poll (2026-09-23 to 2026-09-27)Sherrod Brown 46.6 vs Jon Husted 44.0 (500 LV)
  120. 219YouGov, OH-SEN poll (2026-09-01 to 2026-09-10)Sherrod Brown 48 vs Jon Husted 45 (1000 LV)
  121. 223Rasmussen Reports, TX-SEN poll (2026-10-20 to 2026-10-21)Ken Paxton 45, James Talarico 45, Ted Brown 5 (965 LV)
  122. 224Texas Public Opinion Research, TX-GOV poll (2026-10-15 to 2026-10-18)Greg Abbott 51, Gina Hinojosa 48, Pat Dixon 1 (969 LV; undecided voters pushed to a choice)

Markets

  1. 26Kalshi, 2026 midterm marketsHouse D 91.6%, Senate D 68%, Senate race prices
  2. 27Kalshi News, balance of powerCurrent House 218 R, 214 D, 2 vacancies; Senate 53 to 47
  3. 28Polymarket, 2026 midterm marketsHouse D 92.5%, Senate D 67.5%, race prices (read Oct 23 about 7:05 AM ET)
  4. 29Kalshi, Tennessee governor marketBlackburn 93.8%, Green 6.2%
  5. 30State of the Odds, Tennessee governor (Kalshi and Polymarket)Polymarket Blackburn 94%, Green 5% (snapshot 7:53 AM ET Oct 22)
  6. 72Kalshi, Kansas Attorney General winnerChris Mann (D) 56%, Kris Kobach (R) 45%, Oct 22
  7. 220Kalshi, Senate and House control marketsSenate D 68%, House D 91.6% (last trade, Oct 23 about 7:05 AM ET)
  8. 221Polymarket, which party will win the Senate and HouseSenate D 67.5%, House D 92.5% (Oct 23 about 7:05 AM ET)

Ratings and models

  1. 31Cook Political Report, Senate ratingsSenate ratings, all 35 races (dated Oct 20, 2026)
  2. 32Cook Political Report, Governor ratingsGovernor ratings, all 36 races (page dated Oct 13, 2026)
  3. 33Cook Political Report, House ratingsHouse ratings, 435 seats (Oct 16, 2026)
  4. 34Sabato's Crystal Ball, 2026 rating changesSenate and governor rating changes through Oct 22
  5. 35Sabato's Crystal Ball, Five Senate rating changes (Oct 14)Senate Toss-ups and Leans; seat summary
  6. 36Sabato's Crystal Ball, The Governors (Oct 22)Ohio governor to Leans D; House 223/12/200 summary; Silver Bulletin Ohio averages quoted
  7. 37Inside Elections via Roll Call (Oct 20)30 rating changes; Senate D +3 to 5; House D +10 to 20
  8. 38Inside Elections, Senate outlookSenate projection Democrats +3 to 5 (full ratings table on the site)
  9. 39Sabato's Crystal Ball, 2026 governor ratings map (Oct 22)Tennessee Safe R
  10. 40Decision Desk HQ House forecastHouse D 78%, average 236 D seats
  11. 41Newsweek on Silver Bulletin Senate oddsSilver Bulletin Senate D about 75% (model page paywalled)
  12. 42Pollsmax Tennessee governor forecastBlackburn 99.0%, projected R+22.4 (updated Oct 22); used only to check a viral claim
  13. 43VoteHub, Texas early vote tracking Day 3 (post, 6:46 PM ET Oct 22)2,249,055 votes as of Oct 21; modeled Talarico 45.8 to 55.0, Paxton 42.8 to 52.0; Tilt D
  14. 130Wikipedia: 2026 United States Senate elections (ratings table, nominees)Inside Elections (Oct 15) and Sabato (Oct 14) ratings that were blank in my table; full nominee names
  15. 131Wikipedia: 2026 United States gubernatorial elections (ratings table, nominees)Inside Elections (Oct 15) and Sabato (Oct 22) ratings that were blank in my table; full nominee names
  16. 133Cook Political Report: Senate rating changes, Oct 20Cook, Oct 20: South Carolina to Lean R, Mississippi to Likely R, Minnesota to Lean D (already in my table)

Model inputs

  1. 82VoteHub Polling API (CC BY 4.0)Raw Senate, governor, House, generic ballot and approval polls with pollster, dates, sample, population, sponsor and partisan flags; now my poll feed
  2. 83Silver Bulletin pollster ratings (Jan 14, 2026 table)Letter grades used to weight polls; F-graded firms dropped
  3. 84MIT Election Data and Science Lab, U.S. President 1976-2024 (Harvard Dataverse)State 2020 and 2024 presidential margins; national 2024 R +1.47, 2020 D +4.45; state lean weighted 75% 2024, 25% 2020
  4. 85MIT Election Data and Science Lab, U.S. Senate 1976-2024 (Harvard Dataverse)Each Senate incumbent's last race margin vs the state's presidential margin that year
  5. 86FEC bulk data, 2025-2026 all candidates summary (weball26)Senate candidates' total receipts, individual contributions and cash on hand through Sep 30 or Oct 14, 2026
  6. 87OpenFEC API, itemized individual contributions by stateIn-state share of itemized individual contributions, 2026 cycle
  7. 88The Downballot: 100+ specials since Trump's return (Aug 19, 2026)110 specials since Jan 2025: Democrats ran 12.5 points ahead of Harris, 8.4 ahead of Biden; calculated environment about D +12
  8. 89Elections in USA: generic ballot by aggregator (compiled from Wikipedia, Oct 21)Generic ballot: DDHQ D +7.9, FiftyPlusOne D +9.1, NBC D +9.0, RealClearPolitics D +8.3, Silver Bulletin D +9.2; Polymarket House D 92.5%
  9. 90VoteHub: Before and After Labor Day (Oct 19, 2026)VoteHub generic ballot D +9; Senate forecast D 59%; House 235 expected D seats
  10. 91RealClearPolitics Trump approval average via MacroMicro (Oct 21)Approve 38.3%, disapprove 60.5%
  11. 92Forbes: Trump approval record lows (Oct 21)NYT/Siena Oct 12 to 19, 3,494 LV: 36 approve, 59 disapprove; generic ballot D 52, R 41
  12. 93USA Today: Trump approval record lows in NYT and CNN polls (Oct 21)CNN/SSRS approval 32%
  13. 94Newsweek: Silver forecast shifts after fake polls removed (Oct 21)Wedgewood admitted fabrication Tue Oct 20; removed and permanently banned Wed Oct 21; MI Senate lead 3.6 to 3.0
  14. 95Axios: fake polls and the Wedgewood investigation (Oct 21)Context on the Wedgewood removals
  15. 96AP: Median Strategies fake polls (Aug 2026)Fake polls in Los Angeles, Wisconsin and Nevada
  16. 97Silver Bulletin polling average methodologyExcludes banned pollsters, DIY hobbyist polls, MRP-smoothed and leading-question polls
  17. 98Silver Bulletin FLIPR midterm model methodology (Aug 11, 2026)Expert ratings shifted to the model's national environment; fundamentals use partisan lean and candidate record
  18. 99Cook Political Report: how predictive are special elections?Caution: special-election swing has run ahead of the House vote
  19. 100Decision Desk HQ polling methodologyInclusion rules; excludes The Public Sentiment Institute
  20. 101FEC Schedule A: Reid Hoffman contributions, 2025-2026Lone Star Rising PAC $16.5M in four gifts through Oct 14 ($5M on Oct 9 in the pre-general report, https://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/090/202610229945023090/202610229945023090.pdf); separate $5M (Sep 10) and $3.5M (Sep 22) to House Majority PAC

How others see it

  1. 102Decision Desk HQ 2026 forecast (updated Oct 22, 2:18 PM)Senate D 57%, 51 seats; House D 78%, 236 seats
  2. 103Daily Express on Silver Bulletin forecast (Oct 21)Silver Bulletin: House D 94%, Senate D 75% (forecast itself paywalled)
  3. 104GamingToday: what markets, polls and forecasters say (Oct 2026)Split Ticket Oct 14: House D 89%, Senate D 65%
  4. 105Vote-Scope: Senate forecast comparison (Oct 22)The Economist Senate D 60% (Oct 7); Kalshi 67.6%, Polymarket 66.5% (Oct 22)
  5. 106The Economist House forecast (updated Oct 22)Headline: Democrats are heavy favourites to flip the House; 25,001 simulations
  6. 107RacetotheWH Senate forecastDaily forecast, 50,000 simulations; interactive, see link
  7. 108Split Ticket 2026 model at The ArgumentMethod: VoteHub-weighted generic ballot, Verasight microdata, Catalist LV screens, polls via VoteHub API

Reporting and trackers

  1. 44NBC News early vote tracker (TargetSmart and state data)20,286,857 early votes nationally (8:00 PM ET update)
  2. 45UF Election Lab (University of Florida) early vote tracker (Michael McDonald)At least 18 million early votes (Oct 22 morning update); page updated 7:41 PM ET
  3. 46Call the Map early vote trackerNC, PA, AZ, GA, MI counts and registration splits from state files via UF Election Lab
  4. 47TexPolls turnout tracker (Texas SOS data)2,189,354 through Oct 21; 2022 same day 1,617,402
  5. 48Ohio Early Vote 2026 tracker (independent, built on SOS files)County same-day comparisons (interactive; see link)
  6. 49ABC News early vote analysis (Oct 22)Context: early vote is one piece; Republicans more likely to vote on Election Day
  7. 50WHBC News, Stark County early voting (Oct 21)Stark: about 12,000 early in-person as of Oct 20; 13,821 in 2022; about 1,000 a day; 21,000 absentee ballots mailed
  8. 51Harris County early vote via KPRC Click2Houston (Oct 22)Harris County 327,691 early voters through Oct 21
  9. 52Bloomberg News (Bloomberg Law), Yass $110 millionYass gave almost $110M to Republicans this cycle, $30M toward Ramaswamy
  10. 53Signal Ohio on Yass and the Ohio raceActon raised $21.8M (latest public report then); ad totals per Medium Buying
  11. 54AdImpact Senate general-election ad totals via WESH/HearstSenate general-election ad spending by race as of Oct 20
  12. 55Wesleyan Media Project (AdImpact data), Oct 15 releaseAd spending Sep 28 to Oct 11 by Senate and governor race, pro-Dem share
  13. 56Washington Post on Bloomberg spending (Oct 20)Over $80M; $16M House Majority PAC; $24M Everytown; $2.5M pro-Talarico PAC
  14. 57Reuters on Trump and Bloomberg spending (Oct 20)Trump quote: over $400M by Election Day, over $300M spent
  15. 58AP on MAGA Inc. spendingNearly $277M spent in late blitz
  16. 59Politico on Senate Majority PAC in Mississippi (Oct 20)Initial $1.2M TV buy for Colom
  17. 60WJTV on Trump Corinth rallyTrump rally for Hyde-Smith in Corinth, Monday Oct 26
  18. 61Magnolia Tribune on fabricated Wedgewood poll (Oct 20)Wedgewood MS poll admitted fabricated
  19. 62Washington Post on Cook's MS and SC Senate movesContext for Oct 20 Cook moves
  20. 63Wikipedia, 2018 and 2022 Tennessee governor results (TN SOS certified)2022 Lee 64.91, Martin 32.92; 2018 Lee 59.56, Dean 38.55
  21. 69POLITICO live update: Musk gives another $76M (Oct 22)Musk gave $76M more to America PAC in the first half of October; 2026-cycle giving above $442M (also quoted by Election Law Blog)
  22. 70CNBC: midterm fundraising and Elon Musk (Oct 16)Musk over $276M in Q3, incl. $158M to Senate Leadership Fund, which moved $158M to Texas PAC backing Paxton (FEC); Talarico raised $60.2M in Q3, Paxton about $10.2M
  23. 71POLITICO: Megadonors power Republicans' spending advantage (Oct 16)Uihlein past $130M this cycle; Yass over $105M incl. $10M more in Q3 to the pro-Ramaswamy super PAC (FEC review)
  24. 76Florida's Voice posts on day 4 early voting (Oct 22)1:57 PM ET: day 4 R+16.1 (R 61,357, D 40,926); 7:41 PM ET follow-up: R+12.2 for the day. Partial, single-day in-person counts
  25. 77Texas Tribune: Reid Hoffman gives $10M to pro-Talarico super PAC (Jul 16)FEC: Hoffman $10M (June), $1M (Feb), $0.5M (Jan) to Lone Star Rising, $11.5M through Jun 30 (a further $5M on Oct 9 brings it to $16.5M); pro-Paxton Lone Star Liberty PAC raised just under $4.3M in Q2. Confirmed in FEC Schedule A on Oct 22: Lone Star Rising PAC (C00918268) received $500,000 (Jan 27), $1,000,000 (Feb 23) and $10,000,000 (Jun 30), total $11.5M
  26. 78AAA national average fuel pricesOct 22: regular $4.2701, diesel $6.3090 (year ago $3.6289)
  27. 81AP: Hinson joins Trump rally in Sioux City (Oct 22)Trump rallied with Ashley Hinson in Sioux City on Oct 22; another Iowa visit expected Nov 1

County early vote data

  1. 65UF Election Lab (University of Florida), 2026 county early vote files (credit: UF Election Lab, CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)20,935,402 early ballots nationally as of Oct 22 (statewide file US.csv, sum of state totals with each state's own as-of date); county files compiled from state sources
  2. 66Texas SOS early voting roster (EVR), cumulative by countyCounty counts through Oct 22: Dallas 279,245; Harris 258,794 (232,081 in person, 26,713 mail)
  3. 67NC State Board of Elections absentee fileAccepted ballots by county and registration party (Wake, Mecklenburg)
  4. 68Pennsylvania DOS mail ballot data (data.pa.gov)Mail ballots returned by county and registration party (Bucks, Philadelphia), dataset updated 9:36 AM ET Oct 22

Economy (context only, not in the model)

  1. 109University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, preliminary October 2026Consumer sentiment 46.3 (Sep 48.1, Oct 2025 53.6)
  2. 110BLS Consumer Price Index, September 2026 (released Oct 14)CPI up 3.7% over 12 months; core 2.6%; gasoline up 34.2%
  3. 111BLS Employment Situation, September 2026 (released Oct 2)Unemployment 4.2%; payrolls +29,000